Very Strong earthquake - Central Italy - at least 63 dead, over 100 expected unfortunately
Very Strong earthquake - Central Italy - at least 63 dead, over 100 expected unfortunately
Last update: August 24, 2016 at 2:05 pm by By
UPDATE 12:45pm GMT: The damage at Amatrice and Accumoli is still being evaluated but from photos
Amatrice - 35 dead; Accumoli - 11 dead; Pescara del Tronto and Arquata del Tronto - 17 dead.
UPDATE 12:30pm GMT: Just to clear
up something we are reading in the press. This earthquake was not of
the same ground motion levels or magnitude as L'Aquila. The magnitude of
Mw6.0 is less than that of L'Aqulia by about 2-3 times the energy
output.
It could be however that some structures
due to the spectral response of the earthquake, have experienced larger
motions at a certain distance than were seen in the 2009 event.
Earthquakes although having the same magnitude and perhaps depth; can
have very different seismic signals and impacts.
UPDATE 11:45am GMT: Unfortunately
14 bodies are at the morgue consisting of bodies from Pescara del
Tronto and Arquata del Tronto.
Updating the death rates in the CATDAT
model seen in Amatrice with historical rates, unfortunately shows a
death toll in the region of 110, with a range of uncertainty from 41 -
297 if the other locations are factored in.
UPDATE 11:20am GMT: Amatrice has seen 35 deaths unfortunately from a total population of 2650 (over 1% of the town).
Another 10 in Marche, and a number in Accumoli, bring the toll to over 50. Over 20 injuries have also been seen in Marche.
2 are dead at Pescara del Tronto.
1 dead at Arquata del Tronto (18 months old)
UPDATE 10:20am GMT: Our hearts go
out to those who have lost loved ones, and who are homeless. The
damage, although not as great as the 2009 and 2012 earthquakes, will
still have a large impact on the region. Intensities further away from
the epicenter are still contributing significantly to the damage so we
hope that the attenuation of the ground motion was greater, sparing a
lot of the financial losses further from the epicenter. Closer to the
epicenter, damage ratios in the order of 25% or higher have been seen in
a couple of the small towns.
UPDATE 10:15am GMT: Adjusting the intensities in the theoretical model of CATDAT to the damage seen:-
Median estimate of deaths: 59 (range from 18-163)
Median estimate of damage: 4.1 billion USD (range from 1.8 billion USD to 8.3 billion USD) - reconstruction costs
UPDATE 10:00am GMT: At least 37
dead are being reported with around 2500 homeless. We do not have the
locations of the deaths apart from the original 21. We hope that the
toll will hopefully not reach the upper bounds of the models. People are
still trapped in certain towns close to the epicenter.
UPDATE 8:07am GMT: Good news from
Norcia near the epicenter where they report damage to be not as
significant as it could have been due to the strong use of earthquake
resistant codes in their buildings.
UPDATE 8:05am GMT: In past events
like L'Aquila the final death toll was 308, and at 12 hours, the death
toll was reported to be around 92.
It is likely therefore, although being of
a lesser impact than the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, that the death toll
will rise to at least 50 with the significant number of trapped people.
UPDATE 8:00am GMT: 11 of these 21 are in Lazio (5 in Amatrice); and 10 in Marche at Pescara del Tronto (Ascoli Piceno).
UPDATE 7:51am GMT: At least 21 people have been killed and many more are trapped under the rubble.
The theoretical models of CATDAT show a
median of 38 deaths with a range between 9 and 126 deaths; and an
average $4.3 billion USD damage with a range from $1.6-8.5 billion.
There is a significant amount of
improvement in some towns with better building practices therefore it is
hoped this will be reduced.
Theoretical models from USGS show the
highest percentage chance between 100-1000 deaths (33%) and 10-100
deaths (31%). They also believe losses will be over $1 billion.
INGV Shake Map:-
Gepostet vor just now von Angelika Giese
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