Devastating earthquake in Rieti, Italy - at least 253 dead; 400+ likely

Last update: August 25, 2016 at 2:24 pm by By Armand Vervaeck and Dr. James Daniell

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UPDATE 06:00 GMT :

The death toll remains at 247 with 190 in Rieti Province. The towns of Amatrice and Accumoli will be write-offs with very few structures being able to be salvaged according to the mayors of the locations. An unknown number of people are left under the rubble.

In L'Aquila in 2009, there was an unexpectedly low percentage of children killed. Unfortunately, in this case we are hearing the opposite.

A best guess of the total number of fatalities using theoretical models cannot be made as using the damage intensities seen, the median estimate of 176 (58-422) is the highest possible for this event based on CATDAT , meaning that the population is likely larger due to the tourist season (as stated by the mayor) or the damageability of these buildings is higher than the average historical fatality ratios seen in Italy previously. Thus we need to use a different method.

If we use the 8.00am death toll of L'Aquila = Around 179 deaths and the final death toll 308; we likely still have a number of fatalities to be registered.

Using the ratio, it is likely that around 425 deaths have occurred with 58% of people accounted for at the same point in 2009 if the response patterns are the same (this may give some indication).

The economic losses using updated intensities in the region have reduced the loss estimates through CATDAT:- median costs ($2.6b with a range from $950m-$6.6b).

UPDATE 05:50 GMT :

The intensities in the epicentral region were around VIII-IX (very damaging to masonry structures), however the shallowness and strength of the earthquake have limited the extent to which the earthquake was felt, and also the level of damage further away from the epicentral region.

Intensity map from felt intensities via the INGV, Italy.

UPDATE 05:45 GMT :

Norcia and Amatrice are no stranger to damaging earthquakes with over 10 greatly damaging earthquakes (VIII MCS (ca. VII-VIII MMI)) in the last 700 years. (thanks to DBMI of the INGV).