Devastating earthquake in Rieti, Italy - at least 247 dead; 400+ likely

 

Devastating earthquake in Rieti, Italy - at least 247 dead; 400+ likely

Last update: August 25, 2016 at 7:12 am by By Armand Vervaeck and Dr. James Daniell

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UPDATE 06:00 GMT :

The death toll remains at 247 with 190 in Rieti Province. The towns of Amatrice and Accumoli will be write-offs with very few structures being able to be salvaged according to the mayors of the locations. An unknown number of people are left under the rubble.

In L'Aquila in 2009, there was an unexpectedly low percentage of children killed. Unfortunately, in this case we are hearing the opposite.

A best guess of the total number of fatalities using theoretical models cannot be made as using the damage intensities seen, the median estimate of 176 (58-422) is the highest possible for this event based on CATDAT , meaning that the population is likely larger due to the tourist season (as stated by the mayor) or the damageability of these buildings is higher than the average historical fatality ratios seen in Italy previously. Thus we need to use a different method.

If we use the 8.00am death toll of L'Aquila = Around 179 deaths and the final death toll 308; we likely still have a number of fatalities to be registered.

Using the ratio, it is likely that around 425 deaths have occurred with 58% of people accounted for at the same point in 2009 if the response patterns are the same (this may give some indication).

UPDATE 05:50 GMT :

The intensities in the epicentral region were around VIII-IX (very damaging to masonry structures), however the shallowness and strength of the earthquake have limited the extent to which the earthquake was felt, and also the level of damage further away from the epicentral region.

Intensity map from felt intensities via the INGV, Italy.

UPDATE 05:45 GMT :

Norcia and Amatrice are no stranger to damaging earthquakes with over 10 greatly damaging earthquakes (VIII MCS (ca. VII-VIII MMI)) in the last 700 years. (thanks to DBMI of the INGV).

UPDATE 05:30 GMT :

From INGV: this shows the number of major historic earthquakes in the vicinity from the year 1000 til today (shown left). The region is in the highest seismic zone in the Italian earthquake codes (shown right).

Of these earthquakes, the 1639 and 1703 events

UPDATE 04:30 GMT :

The death toll has unfortunately risen to 247. This is expected to rise again in the coming hours unfortunately given the large populations and destruction.

(190 dead in Rieti Province, 57 in Ascoli Piceno Province).

- 400 people have been injured.

- 1500 people are homeless in Marche (Arquarta and Pescara del Tronto).

- 5000+ are likely homeless in Accumoli, Amatrice and other locations in Rieti Province in Lazio.

UPDATE 04:00 GMT :

As more information comes to light, it is expected that the death toll will rise again. It is up to 163.

Models  underestimated the death toll originally due to a few issues:-

- The population in the towns was a lot higher due to holiday season with many more people there for festivals (many tourists are unfortunately among the dead). The famous festival of the Amatriciana pasta sauce was to be held there this weekend. The mountain top towns were likely to have 3-4 times more people than usual according to local officials meaning that we can expect the death toll to likely rise even further using this in combination with the base models.

- Initial estimates of intensities in the epicentral region were too low, with much more shaking experienced on these mountain top towns than were modelled theoretically - thus increasing the death ratios.

- The night occurrence of the event caused higher losses as most people were unable to escape their buildings.

UPDATE 22:04 GMT :
Italy's civil protection agency says death toll in earthquake rises to 159.

UPDATE 6.30pm GMT: Watching the death toll rise over the day, we are up to 120 people unofficially. With 73 dead officially (53 in Amatrice and Accumoli; 20 in Marche), 358 are injured alone in Amatrice and Accumoli communes. 

The economic loss estimates remain as earlier from CATDAT.

UPDATE 12:45pm GMT: The damage at Amatrice and Accumoli is still being evaluated but from photos 

Amatrice - 35 dead; Accumoli - 11 dead; Pescara del Tronto and Arquata del Tronto - 17 dead.

UPDATE 12:30pm GMT: Just to clear up something we are reading in the press. This earthquake was not of the same ground motion levels or magnitude as L'Aquila. The magnitude of Mw6.0 is less than that of L'Aqulia by about 2-3 times the energy output.

It could be however that some structures due to the spectral response of the earthquake, have experienced larger motions at a certain distance than were seen in the 2009 event. Earthquakes although having the same magnitude and perhaps depth; can have very different seismic signals and impacts.

UPDATE 11:45am GMT: Unfortunately 14 bodies are at the morgue consisting of bodies from Pescara del Tronto and Arquata del Tronto.